Hochman: What MLB history says of 2024 Cardinals possibly making playoffs (hint: could be tough) (2024)

During the course of a rough go, I can’t imagine our newspaper ever putting a Cardinals “season” on a gravestone. Not because it isn’t clever. But because of the infamous 2005 edition of the Houston Chronicle. On June 1 of that year, the Astros were 19-32. And the front of the Sports section showed a tombstone with the team’s logo and the words: “RIP Astros season; April 5, 2005-June 1, 2005.”

The 2005 Astros went on to win the pennant.

As the late Joaquin Andujar famously said, the best word to describe baseball is: “Youneverknow.”

Which brings us to the 2024 Cardinals, who entered Saturday with a 19-25 record (.432 winning percentage). It’s indeed been a rough go — and a sequel to the rough go that was the 71-91 season a year ago.

So, what does history tell us about the Cards possibly making the playoffs?

This was brought to my attention by Brandon Kiley, a radio host on ESPN 101.1 FM. The wild-card playoff era began in 1995. That’s 29 postseasons. Only 16 times has a team started a season with a 19-25 record or worse … and made the postseason.

Of those 16 teams, only five made the World Series: the 2003 Marlins, the 2005 Astros, the 2007 Rockies, the 2018 Dodgers and the 2019 Nationals (the Marlins and Nationals won it all).

And per research on Baseball-Reference.com, only eight of the 16 teams even made it to the LCS.

Hey, at least for the current Cardinals, the outlook is better than it was as recently as Monday.

After 40 games, the Cardinals entered this week with a 16-24 record. Teams in the wild-card era that made the playoffs with that record or worse after 40 games?

Five.

There are quite a lot of games remaining on the schedule in 2024. But if this hole gets any deeper, it could be impossible to climb out of, let alone to climb into the playoffs.

The Cardinals’ offense has been confounding most of this season. How can this many guys underachieve at the same time? Coach Turner Ward and the hitting department work tirelessly, but I have to wonder about the messaging, since the players can’t seem to execute routinely (especially hitting with runners in scoring position, but also, just hitting). That said, in a small sample size, the Cards’ offense recently came to life. St. Louis salvaged the embarrassing series at Milwaukee with a win — and then won two of the three games against the Angels, followed by a Friday win at home against Boston.

But it wasn’t just that they won, but how they won — with slugging and contagious hitting. Score totals in those four wins were: four, 10, seven and 10 again. In that Friday game with 10 runs, four Cardinals hit a four-bagger.

On Saturday before the game, I asked Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol about the offense. Notably — for examples of things he saw out of hitters in that stretch that he hadn’t seen in weeks prior.

“Mentally, I would say, when it wasn’t going well, guys were trying to get three hits on one swing,” Marmol said. “And chasing that knock, ‘Because, man, it seems hard to come by right now.’ They’re controlling the strike zone. And previous to (Friday’s) game, just being able to take the walk and not trying to do too much — it’s a good sign of no longer chasing hits, but just taking a quality at bat and trusting the guy behind you.

“(Friday) was an example of getting good pitches in the zone and doing damage. Four homers, guys driving the ball, but also not trying to do too much. Like, (Lars) Nootbaar wasn’t trying to hit a home run. He’s trying to move the runner and took a really good swing. It’s combination of things, but (Friday) was a positive day that allows you to celebrate all the other stuff that’s going on that’s been good and maybe taken for granted.”

Of the 16 teams who started 19-25 or worse and made the playoffs, one was the 1996 Cards.

That was a pivotal team in franchise history.

It was the first team with the new ownership (the DeWitt family and others), new manager (Tony La Russa), new (actual) grass, a new marketing slogan (“Baseball like it oughta be”) and new players (notably Ron Gant, Andy Benes, Todd Stottlemyre, Royce Clayton, Gary Gaetti and Dennis Eckersley).

The season was Ozzie Smith’s last, and the acquisition of the shortstop Clayton created some internal problems.

By May 19 (Sunday’s date in 2024), the Cardinals were swept by the Rockies in Colorado and had fallen to 17-26. It sure seemed like ’96 would be another frustrating 1990s season. But the Cards won their next five games and began clicking.

In the end — thanks to a lot of help from Brian Jordan and Ray Lankford and even a little help from Miguel Mejia — the Cardinals finished 88-74 and in first place.

They knocked off San Diego in the first round.

They took a 3-1 lead against the Braves in the NLCS.

Then, alas, Smoltz-Maddux-Glavine happened.

And so, there are inspirational examples for the 2024 St. Louis Cardinals.

But right now, the playoff odds — especially if the hitting doesn’t get right for a long stretch — are low.